Posted on November 23rd, 2009 by
Mojo
Futures are up +89 as of 6:40am ET. Its the Monday after expiry so be cautious about a gap fill. Housing announcement at 10 (which I think will be pretty good but who knows how the market will react).
I’m looking for some cheap fills on calendars and maybe some long options to sell time against. If we get a gap-n-go (to the upside) then we should see vols come down pretty quick.
Mojo
PS – I’m thinking about moving our classes to Saturday at 11am ET. Send me your thoughts?
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Posted on November 5th, 2009 by
Mojo
There’s a sucker move building in the market this morning. Overnight futures (YM) went down to -60 and are now sitting at +4. Frankly, I’m not buying it.
The market action after the FOMC announcement would have normally shot to the downside (classic N pattern), instead all of that move jumped on into the close (bearish sign). During our team meeting last night I saw several charts showing little conviction to the upside and many more charts breaking down at 5 min, 15 min, and 60 min bars.
Once we get some confirming closes on the 60 min bars we will see a good bit of draft to the downside. Take a look at this chart on the Diamonds (DIA):
We got a gap up yesterday that didn’t quite get closed. If we get a gap up today then that will only add fuel to the fire for a quicker downside move. As such I would expect to see us hit our first target early. I’m going to use this as an opportunity to BTC (buy to close) some short Nov puts. If we hit the second target I would expect to see a little bounce.
All in all I’m not expecting a huge range today but I would watch out for some burst of violence.
Mojo
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Posted on November 4th, 2009 by
Mojo
I ran across this article today and thought you might enjoy it:
Trade Like a Fund Manager
Its written by a guy who tracks the performance of investment advisor newsletters and he does a good job of explaining the potential mindset of fund managers going into the end of 2009.
Anyway, take a few minutes and take a look….
Mojo
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