Posted on December 29th, 2008 by
Mojo
I’m sure the check is in the mail but I don’t feel like I (or many folks like myself) have gotten a fair shake in this whole bailout deal.
Over the past year I’ve watched as my rental and investment properties have lost more than $500,000 in equity. I’m talking real equity here not the fluffy kind that you get at the top of the market. This was equity that I put in from large downpayments ranging from 25 to 100%. Not only is the cash gone but now the equity is gone as well. This is a loss directly off my balance sheet. Had I put down the same 3 to 5% down that most other investors and homeowners did then that $500,000 would have come off of the bank’s balance sheet and not my own. Aren’t I getting penalized for doing the right thing?
We (my wife and I) don’t have any credit card debt. We don’t have any consumer debt. We don’t have any school loans. We pay all of our bills on time and in full. We have diligently contributed to our retirements and the retirements of our employees. We have lived below our means and within our budgets. We have been careful, smart, conservative and at times even cheap. We have provided good jobs for more than 40 people. We have been overly generous with our family and friends and we have been doing these things for more than 20 years.
Yet, at the end of the day, it feels like we are getting the shaft. Does this seem even in the realm of fair to anyone else? Or am I so past the Christmas spirit that I’m completely missing the point?
Who is looking after folks like me? Not the politicians, I don’t have the multitudes of the poor. Not the lobbyist, I don’t have the influence of the mega rich or well connected. Who then is looking after us?? Aren’t the ‘good guys’ supposed to win?
Mojo
PS – Yes, I know there are lots of folks that would love to have $500,000 in equity to lose and that there are bigger problems out there. I’m not suggesting otherwise. If I had a sick child, a pending divorce, or was terminal ill I wouldn’t give two craps about this equity.
Popularity: 15% [?]
Share This
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email
Posted on December 23rd, 2008 by
Mojo
McDonald’s (MCD) continues to do well against the rest of the crappy economy (technical term). I’ve been watching it holding relative strength and even increasing a bit. Now with the overall market consolidating and looking a little to the upside it might be a good time to enter on MCD. Take a look at the price chart:
Volume is good, support at 50 held fast , volatility is coming down and getting close to support, and price is above all three moving averages. Fundamentals look good (comparatively) and they just increased their dividend.
Assuming that we are in agreement here what type of strategy would you use? Long stock? Short puts? Bull put spread? Covered Call? Send me your thoughts and I will take the two most popular choices and trade them both over the next couple of months.
Have a Merry Christmas!
Mojo
Popularity: 15% [?]
Share This
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email
Posted on December 22nd, 2008 by
Mojo
For the next couple of weeks I won’t be putting on any new trades. With volume low, intraday craziness, and tax planning going on its unlikely that we will get many trade-able signals out of the market. I will only be trading defensively to protect my positions.
Tuesday (tomorrow) is pretty news heavy so be careful. This should be the last reasonable day until Jan.
Mojo
Popularity: 14% [?]
Share This
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email
Posted on December 18th, 2008 by
Mojo
I’ve been noticing recently that the market is reacting to even pretty bad news with a shrug and good news with a cheer. Seems to me the market sentiment is getting more bullish.
Let’s take a look at the technicals -
Some of the downward trends are failing apart and new upward trends are building. Remember that the market will only turn once we have run out of sellers. This leaves the folks that would never sell no matter what price the stock fell to, the folks that couldn’t sell and the folks that weren’t paying close enough attention to sell.
Take a look at this chart from the 17th and you can see a series of higher highs and higher lows developing:
Its the end of the year – How are the mutual funds doing? Everyone is going to have to report yearly returns and what they are holding. Now is their only chance to try and save their returns and win the game of sucking wind less the next guy. As for their holdings?? No one wants to be holding anything they could be ridiculed for so we should see some upward movement in the big company brand names with special emphasis on infrastructure and cyclicals.
Does this mean we will break 10,000 by the end of the year. No, I don’t think so. What it means for me is that I’m now short term bullish / neutral (30 days or less) while still being long term bearish.
Mojo
Popularity: 16% [?]
Share This
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email
Posted on December 16th, 2008 by
Mojo
I got a lot of emails from folks asking what I meant by an ‘N Pattern’ post announcement. Basically its a map of the digestive track for the market. Specifically its when a large news event occurs we typically will have a sharp upturn, then a retracement, then a huge breakout. Like this:
N Patterns can also exist to the downside but I don’t find they are quite as common.
Mojo
Popularity: 16% [?]
Share This
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email
Posted on December 16th, 2008 by
Mojo
Today is Yet Another Fed Day (YAFD). Market volume should be pretty decent the first 60 to 90 minutes and then things will die until the announcement at 1415. If you are using trending systems I would probably halt trading after 1100. Post announcement we should have some good volatility (N pattern) so be ready for it!
Mojo
Popularity: 15% [?]
Share This
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email
Posted on December 12th, 2008 by
Mojo
The market is really starting to snooze again. Among the calmest ETF and stocks is the pharmaceutical holders (PPH). Take a look at this chart:
I’m thinking about a double calendar to take advantage of sideways movement, some time decay, and to give a positive vega exposure in case the market takes off.
Below, I’ve put the Dec / Feb double calendars into the analyzer. Payoff is OK but not great so I would also look at the Jan / Febs.
Feel free to send me your thoughts. Have a good weekend!
Mojo
Popularity: 17% [?]
Share This
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email
