Posted on May 30th, 2008 by
Mojo
I was pretty disappointed in yesterday’s late day sell off on the major markets. Not because my portfolio is bullish (I’m actually pretty flat) but because I was personally hoping for some good news to lift the spirits and conversations of my friends and family.
So I’m now stating my bearish bias. Here’s why:
Back in early January the Dow came off of its failed late year rally and fell into a channel between 12,750 at the top and 11,750 at the bottom. After a nice retest of the bottom in early March we began to put in higher lows until we finally broke out of the channel April 18th. We continued to move up to 13,000 setting a high of 13,132 on May 2nd. At this point I’m expecting a test of the broken resistance as support at 12,750. We got this on May 12th. Now I’m thinking we are pretty bullish and setup my portfolio more bullishly.
On May 19th we run back up through the 13,000 reach the recent high and sell off again. Now we might have a double top pointing to bearish move. Bummer…. The only thing that will save us now is our support at 12,750 which fails to hold on May 21st. We move all the way down to new support 12,500 setting in a lower low and breaking the potential setup of a bullish run for now.
The final blow for me was the move to 12,750 and afternoon sell off. Until we can solidly break into a new high I’m holding a bearish to bearish / neutral bias.
Mojo
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Posted on May 29th, 2008 by
Mojo
Here’s a video I did this afternoon showing how I adjust an RTH single calendar into a double calendar.
How to adjust my single calendar on RTH into a double calendar
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This video shows how I adjusted my single calendar RTH trade into a double calendar. <AVI> |
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Posted on May 29th, 2008 by
Mojo
Last night our trade team was talking about technical analysis and probabilities. My point was that we shouldn’t take too much comfort and be always active in managing our trades.
Anyway, I was reminded of this article I read from The Onion ( a fantastic financial newspaper):
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28441
Mojo
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Posted on May 28th, 2008 by
Mojo
IBM has returned to being a rocket ship today and yesterday. In the big 50 point futures rally at 3:30pm I was able to exit for a great credit.
I sold my long call and bought back my short call for an actual ROI of +186.4% in a few weeks! Man I love these technical setups! 
Mojo
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Posted on May 28th, 2008 by
Mojo
Today I close my long call position on Nobel. This position was originally opened with a long Jun 60 call on May 8th following a bull flag technical setup. I sold both the May 65 and Jun 65 calls for extra credit.
I closed today for an actual ROI of +85% in three weeks!
Mojo
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Posted on May 23rd, 2008 by
Mojo
With the downward movement of the major markets and Pepsi today my call calendar fell right into the sweet spot and I closed it today for .66 credit.
That gives me an actual ROI of +22.2% in 8 days!
Mojo
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Posted on May 22nd, 2008 by
Mojo
The Dow has finally retraced to the lows of the morning sitting at support at 12600. This is giving us our first real shot at a healthy recovery. Take a look at this 5 min chart on the Dow:
If we hold here for a bit our chance of reversal increases. Right now I would still call it a 55% bull, 45% bear probability.
If we do break down I will be short the futures to hedge my portfolio delta risk. It will be violent if we head down so be careful!
Mojo
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