Adjusting my First Solar (FSLR) Double Calendar

First Solar (FSLR) is up and moving again. This originally started as a triple calendar adjusted down to a double calendar. Now with today’s downward movement toward our sweetspot we are going to lock in some of these gains and peel off a few contracts.

Here’s a video I made of my analysis and trade showing my adjustment. Enjoy!

How to adjust my double calendar in First Solar (FSLR)

This video shows how I adjusted my double calendar in FSLR to lock in some gains and reduce my risk. <AVI>

Mojo

Share This

If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email

Monthly Report for August +4.5% / +$7,828.75

After the beating I took in July (my first losing month in a while) and seeing that I was going to be on vacation for two weeks in August I scaled down quite a bit on my capital and my trading. I only put on a handful of trades and was happy with my 4.5% return.

Trade Record

I didn’t keep my spreadsheets updated everyday (I can’t see my laptop screen on the beach) so I’m estimating here. I started off with $175K of capital and finished with $183K. I had 6 trades, 5 wins, and 1 loss but I don’t know what the average percent or dollar return was.

Update on Goals for 2008
Health - Came home from the beach a big fat sun burnt wildebeast. I feel pretty good but I ate like crap. I at 231 lbs. Soon I will have my own zip code. I don’t know if its a function of vacationing or trading full time but I feel a little bit and a little less stressed.

Give $25,000 to charity - We have given away $9,000 given so far this year.

Produce $250,000 in personal income (outside of my business and retirement) - $250K is still too much for a $175K account. I haven’t traded my small $5K futures account in a couple of weeks. I don’t want to add any more capital to my account until I reach $200K. Then I will consider it. No sense putting more capital at risk while I’m getting used to trading full time.

Pay off $125,000 of personal debt - So far we have paid down $42,000 in personal debt. I still have a second mortage that I would like to finish paying off but I’m putting this on hold for a bit to reduce any pressure I might feel to create excess income and mistakenly overtrade.

Study for and receive my Series 65 (Investment Advisor) license - Fail. I know, I know I have to stop trading long enough to get my license. Sheez!!

Insanemoney.com - Things are going well. I plan on updating the blog side to include a welcome video, a highlight tab showing some of the favorite posts, and will add some of the trade entries I’m doing without updates.

Raise $1,000,000 of investor funds - Haven’t started yet. I need to complete my license first.

Make 3% a month in options - Check. Made 4.5% for this month.

Lessons learned:
1) Great friends are those that come to your aid when you need them. I’m blessed that I have several of these fine folks in my life.

2) I need to stay focused on what I have and not what I’ve lost. This will help me to keep my gratitude and proper perspective.

3) I didn’t keep my spreadsheet up to date and couldn’t figure for the life of me what my returns per trade were. This isn’t good. I can’t manage what I don’t measure.

Plans for September
I’m still not convinced that I can consistently make money day trading futures. I’m going to take September, some capital, and the help a good friend to find out. I just need to either succeed or fail and move on.

All the best,

Mojo

Share This

If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email

How not to invest $50,000

OK, so let’s start with a Las Vegas promoter (what is that by the way??), add in two backwood Georgia crackers (with my apologies to all of my good friends in Georgia who aren’t crackers), one $500 chest freezer from Sears, $100 worth of Halloween gear, and the idiocy that is the internet. Mix it all together and what do you get??

Yep, you guessed it…. BIGFOOT!

In case you hadn’t heard.  While I was on vacation a couple of knuckleheads from GA came out and said that they had shot Bigfoot and had the body.  They would show off the corpse to the world at a press conference at the end of the week in CA.  A little bit later they came out and said “Well we didn’t actually shoot the Bigfoot, we found the body…  While we were waiting for a flatbed truck to move the body out of the woods we were harrassed by other Bigfoots (or is it Bigfeet?).  Either way, they would unveil the body to the world and here are a couple of really bad photos.

Next up, they invite knucklehead #3 (no offense to my knucklehead friends that aren’t complicit in this affair) who hosts an internet radio show on Bigfoots (still don’t know if it should really be Bigfeet?) to come see it prior to the conference.  He does and comes out with a “My God if you had seen what I had seen you would believe it too” statement and mentions that DNA testing has already started.

Fast forward a day and preliminary DNA results come back “human / ape”.  Now enter the “Vegas Promoter” who drops $50K on the Knuckleheads to purchase the corpse in a huge block of ice still in the freezer.  The GA boys put on a half hearted only thinly veiled attempt at a press conference where they announce that they aren’t going to produce a body “in order to protect the species” but they are putting together a crack team of scientists for further study.   Of course the first “scientist” named on the team turns out to be one of the GA boys’ brother.  Sheez!

Well, the whole time the press conference is going on the “Vegas Promoter” is pushing his giant frozen “Bigfoot Corpse” through a microwave defrost cycle that even Al Gore would be impressed by.  And GUESS WHAT?

Yep, no Bigfoot.  Just a mask, some fake rubber appliances and probably some animal body parts.  He freaks out, starts losing his mind and goes after the GA boys.  And GUESS WHAT?  Yep, they are gone leaving behind only a sense of needing to shower, a spit cup full of chewing tobacco, and a Cabelas catalog with $50,000 of gear circled in Sharpie.  DOH!!

BIGFOOT?? No way, not even close. Am I disappointed? Yep. I loved BigFoot as a kid and read all of the crazy books and stories. Even after spending lots of time in the forest over the past 39 years I still haven’t seen one, heard one, or met anyone that did. Much like bell bottoms and free love I think BigFoot drifted into the past with most of the 70s.In the end the DNA results come back….  Oops!  Turns out it wasn’t “human / ape” but actually possum.  I’m completely disappointed that Bigfoot isn’t real but mostly I’m thinking what kind of dufus is this “Vegas Promoter”?

Why would he invest that kind of money anyway? What because the lottery with it’s 1 to 100,000,000 odds seems like such a sure bet?   Or because he doesn’t know anything about trading options?? I mean holy crap! $50K could provide a lifetime of income to someone with a dialup internet connection, a broken down PC, and just a little bit of knowledge.

Mojo

PS - Maybe Bigfoots (arrr! Or is Bigfeet?) are actually just really, really big Possums!?!  That would explain the DNA testing.  If so, then I should be interviewed on the Discovery channel.  I’ve seen several.

Share This

If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email

Nice Bearish Day… Time to go bull hunting?

Between yesterday and today we are down more than 30 points on the SPX.  We seem to have hit (at least temporarily) a bit a support.

On bearish day I like to go hunting for bullish stocks that I can trade a discount.  What makes a bullish stock?  Something trending bullish to bullish / neutral, above the 200 and 50 day moving averages, post earnings, and of course optionable.  So go take a buzz through your charts and let me know what you see…

Mojo

Share This

If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email

The Wisdom of the Hamster

I have a great friend and mentee nicknamed the “Hamster”. He’s a Christian attorney in Chesapeake, VA who is one of the brightest, most insightful people I know.  I’ve been his mentor for many years and we have become really good friends.

Anyway, I’m celebrating my recent unemployment by vacationing at the beach with several other families about an hour and half from his house.  He knew I was still a little bummed out about the loss of my old business and took the time to drive down to see me.  He’s one of those cherished and rare friends that cares about me enough to tell me the truth and kick my butt when I need it.

Here are some of the highlights:

- He recommended that instead of immediately moving into trading that I take three months off and do nothing.  He could see the terror in my face and he just smiled.  “You need time to rest, relax, and recover.  You don’t have an income problem you just think you do.  And besides, you shouldn’t be trading when you think you need to…”

- “Time is a commodity created by God.  Each time you’ve made mistakes in business or trading it was because you were rushing and pushing time too much.  When you are earning 3% a month you want to earn 5%.  When you earn 5% you want to earn 10%.  Slow down.  3% is incredible!  When you have an agenda (of becoming wealthy too quickly) the universe will conspire against you.   Take enough time to allow God to help you.”

- We talked about my business losses and shifts in my retirement accounts.  He said “You still have a lot of wealth.  You have a wonderful family who love you, your healthy, with lots of great friends and plenty of time.  Focus on what you have and not on what you’ve lost.”

- He said “You’ll be fine.  I’ve known you a long time and you always come out on top.  If I had $20 million I would give it too you right now and not even think about it.  You have talents and skills that most people would love to have.  Don’t forget that”.

- Finally he tied all of this up with:  “You know most of what I’ve told you today you taught me.  Don’t you listen to yourself??  I love you and you must be the dumbest mentor in the world!!!” 

We both laughed, I thanked him, and we said goodbye.

It was awesome… the perfect conversation and exactly what I needed.  If you are lucky enough to have a friend like this tell them “Thank you”.  God not only creates time but he’s also in charge of creating the people as well.  Cherish them both.

All the best,

Mojo

Share This

If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email

Monthly Report for July -10.4% / -$50,259.00

I’m vacationing on the beach and finally got caught up on my past trades. Wow! Did I get crushed in the market in July. Ouchy!

So what happened?? A couple of things all of which were my fault.

1) I was going through the final death throws of my company and about to lay off everyone. It was very tough and very emotional so I shouldn’t have been trading.

2) In the face of this, on expiration Wednesday, my month was up $14K and I had a pretty good shot of turning that $14K into $70K. I was overally concerned with making that $70K instead of trading properly and protecting my capital. Of course, Bank of America rallied and energy (MEE) continued to fall like a stone. In less than 24 hours I gave up $64K.

3) I had a standing rule that I would never put more cash into a losing trade. Well, on Massey (MEE) I didn’t put more cash in but I did increase my risk. So now my rule is to never increase my risk or my cash into a losing trade.

I think its really ironic that last month I broke my goal of making 10% in a month and followed it with losing 10.4% in a month. Geez!

Again I’m reminder that first and foremost I’m trading against myself and then against other traders.

Trade Record

13 trades, 7 wins, 6 losses = 1-to-1 win / loss ratio

avg $ per win: +2,243 avg $ per loss: -10,994

avg % per win: +34.4.8% avg % per loss: -32.4%

Can you see where my problem was?? Two big areas actually. One, I didn’t have a lot of trades but the trades I did have on I only maintained a 1 to 1 win / loss ratio. I’m usually 3 to 1 or better. Two, the 2 major trades I lost on were oversized compared to the others trades and cost me dearly. I lost over $70,000 in just two trades on BAC and MEE. That’s why I’m modifying one of my rules to say “not add more cash or more risk to a losing trade”.

Losing more than 10% in a month means I am reducing my stake and will only trade with $175K. Once I’m up more than 10% over the entire portfolio I may add in addition capital. Until then its more important to not dig a deeper hole and to protect what is not at risk.

This concludes a year for me blogging. Over this time I posted over 700 posts, 250 trades, answered several thousand emails, had a record of 10 winning months vs. 2 losing months, and help a few people along the way.

Update on Goals for 2008
Health - I came close to hitting a previous high weight of 232 lbs. I’m sure this is a function of my stress, lack of exercise and lack of discipline throughout the month. I don’t think its an accident at all that my trading and health are suffering together.

Give $25,000 to charity - We have given away $9,000 given so far this year.

Produce $250,000 in personal income (outside of my business and retirement) - I went full time as a trader just last week. I think the $250,000 goal is a bit aggressive for my trading account ($175K). My plan is to use my futures trading (not from my 5K account) to replace my salary and use options trading to increase my account size and wealth.

Pay off $125,000 of personal debt - So far we have paid down $42,000 in personal debt.

Study for and receive my Series 65 (Investment Advisor) license - Fail. I know, I know I have to stop trading long enough to get my license. Sheez!!

Insanemoney.com - Things are going well. I plan on updating the blog side to include a welcome video, a highlight tab showing some of the favorite posts, and will add some of the trade entries I’m doing without updates.

Raise $1,000,000 of investor funds - Haven’t started yet. I need to complete my license first.

Make 3% a month in options - Fail. I’m thinking about moving this up to 5% a month.

Lessons learned:
1) Over the past couple of months I’ve missed the responsibility of having all of my trades be public. Being public I think makes me a better trader. What I would like to do is to go back to posting my entries and updates for all of my trades inside the Trading Team forum.

2) I need to be careful to not allow my profits from futures trading to blind me to my options trades that are going against. Several times I felt like I was doing well because I was making money for the day when in reality it was my futures making more money than my options were lossing.3) I need to keep my spreadsheet up to date on a daily basis so that I can more easily spot trades that are moving against me and adjust them sooner.

Plans for August
I have only one week of vacation for August and will be “back in the saddle” full time. With all of the pressure of producing my monthly income from my trading I want to be sensitive to not allow that to screw up my trading and to make sure that I keep focused on protecting my capital first and producing income second.

All the best,

Mojo

Share This

If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email

Will the SPX follow thru??

On Tuesday, post FOMC we continued our rallied closing up almost 3% for the day.  Will the rally continue?  I think so but my opinion doesn’t matter.  Let’s take a look at what the chart is telling us:

A couple of weeks ago we broke above overhead resistance.  One week ago we established new overhead resistance and we are sitting right below today.  I thought it was interesting how we closed just underneath.

What’s next?? That’s thousand dollar question…  If we can close above this overhead resistance today or tomorrow I think we will see the rally continue.

What are your thoughts?

Mojo

PS - Notice how completely useless the MACD is here.

Share This

If you enjoyed this post, make sure you Subscribe to Insane Money by Email